A June 3, 2025, report by the ADP Research Institute revealed a sharp decline in US private sector employment, with only 120,000 jobs added in May 2025, down from 190,000 in April and below economists’ 150,000 forecast.
The slowdown, impacting 60% of small businesses, is attributed to a deepening trade war, particularly with China, following 25% US tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese tech imports announced in March 2025. Manufacturing shed 20,000 jobs, with 80% of losses in electronics, while services added 100,000, led by healthcare’s 40,000. The report, covering 25 million workers, signals economic strain, as wages grew just 4.5% annually, lagging 3.8% inflation.
The trade war, costing $50 billion in US exports in 2024, has hit 30% of Midwest manufacturers, with 10,000 layoffs in Ohio alone. President Trump’s tariff hikes, aimed at protecting 500,000 US jobs, face backlash, as 55% of CEOs in a survey predict further cuts. China’s retaliatory 20% tariffs on US soybeans disrupted $10 billion in trade, affecting 1 million farmers.
The Federal Reserve, holding rates at 4.5%, faces pressure to cut, with 70% of economists forecasting a 2026 recession. Public sentiment, with 60% in polls blaming tariffs, fuels debate, as 2 million jobless claims in 2025 strain welfare. The report underscores global trade’s fragility, with $1 trillion in disrupted supply chains, but US resilience, adding 2.5 million jobs since 2024, hinges on policy recalibration.
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