Tinubunomics: A Downward Spiral and the Urgent Path to Recovery – Dr Kenny Odugbemi

 The Harsh Economic Reality

Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, is grappling with an alarming economic crisis under the Tinubu administration’s Tinubunomics policies. The nation’s GDP per capita has nosedived by 72.35% over the past decade, plunging millions into financial distress.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria’s economic output has tumbled from $3,022 in 2014 to a mere $835.49 in 2024—a staggering decline that underscores the country’s worsening economic trajectory.

The Human Toll

Behind these bleak statistics lies a sobering reality:

• Rising Poverty – Families can barely afford basic necessities as purchasing power diminishes.
• Business Closures – Small and medium enterprises are collapsing under the weight of inflation and reduced consumer spending.
• A Lost Generation? – Young Nigerians face uncertain futures with dwindling opportunities for education, employment, and entrepreneurship.

The removal of fuel subsidies, intended as an economic reform measure, has instead exacerbated inflation, sending petrol prices soaring and further straining household incomes.

A Call for Urgent Reform

Nigeria must take decisive action to reverse this economic downturn. Key financial policymakers—most notably the Minister of Finance and Governor of the Central Bank—must champion a multi-faceted recovery plan focused on:

• Revitalizing production – Investing in agriculture, manufacturing, and technology to stimulate sustainable economic growth.
• Balancing trade – Reducing over-reliance on imports while fostering export-driven expansion.
• Enhancing security – Creating a stable environment where businesses can thrive without fear.
• Ensuring food and energy security – Strengthening policies to safeguard access to essential commodities.

Actionable Recommendations

To navigate Nigeria out of this crisis, strategic reforms must be implemented, including:

1. Economic Diversification – Reducing dependence on oil and expanding non-oil sectors such as agriculture, fintech, and industrial production.
2. Human Capital Investment – Prioritizing education, healthcare, and skills training to boost national productivity.
3. Governance Reform – Strengthening institutions, eliminating corruption, and fostering transparency.
4. Private Sector Enablement – Creating a business-friendly climate to attract local and foreign investors.

The Road Ahead

Nigeria’s economic challenges demand urgent, collective action. As Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, wisely noted:

“The greatest glory in living lies not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.”

Nigeria has the potential to rebound—but only if decisive steps are taken to foster inclusive growth, responsible governance, and economic stability.

Insights from Global Economic Leaders

• “Nigeria’s future economic success hinges on diversification and human capital investment.” – Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
• “With sound policies and good governance, Nigeria can emerge as an economic powerhouse.” – Jim Yong Kim, Former President of the World Bank
• “Entrepreneurship, innovation, and private sector growth are key to Nigeria’s economic revival.” – Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the WTO

The time for action is now. Will Nigeria rise to the challenge?