Review of PBAT Administration

Review of PBAT Administration by Dr kenny Odugbemi
(New Year’s address)

Economic vital

Non oil, Qtr 3-N4trn(67%)
Liquidity- N2.7trn
Revenue-N10.49trn
Borrowing- N7.44trn
Recurrent expenditure-N9.92trn
Capital expenditure-N8.7trn
Budget deficit-N9.18trn
GDP-$489.8bn
GDP growth-2.2%
Debt owed by 36states 28.95%- N6.6trn
GDP per Capital-$5,884
Total debt+N87.7trn
New borrowing $1.7bn months
Out of school children >20m

National issues
Food security – this will remain elusive without proper security of life and property especially
in plateau, Taraba, Sokoto, Kaduna, Katsina, Niger etc
These are agrian state
Acquisition of 500hectares is impossible as Governor’s control of land use, this implies government support will go to the North, who will export their food to earn dollars for themselves at the expense of our patrimony just like Anchor borrower fund

Power supply inefficient as grid collapse 12times
We generate 12000MGW but less than 4000MGW distribution

Capital importation has fallen, 27 states have not anything of the sort.

Fuel subsidy will resurface in 2024

President’s convoy of 50 cars to attend Friday’s Jummat does not show any frugality or sacrifice

Seven months of promissory notes with no concrete plan

Fighting what ever that will limit FDI – this is elusive due to lack of trust, pandemic of empty pocket of the citizens, lack of forex, Naira scarcity, our banks have no money to give customers
How do PBAT fight investment opportunities

PBAT administration must leave realm of promise to measurable action plan

PBAT just Plan to collect soon, fund sale of crude from Afrexim $2.5bn and dividend of NLNG to Europe and South Africa commence Qtr1 there by mortgaging our future foreign earnings

NASS has just increased their budget by 74% that aids passing budget of N28.7trn

Provision of forward path and means of N1.73trn,while execution is still at planning stage

NAFDAC have no capacity to monitor drug consumption patterns and stock levels
*No exit plan for multinationals
*No stock limit
*No credible alternative locally to replace their products eg Amplicux and Augmentin
*Price hike of their products

Capital expenditure performance last year: 27%
We have 50% unmotorable roads
We still owe N1trn for past showdy road construction
*We have less than N700bn Fy2024 for Federal Ministry of Work d
FDI’s investment will remain elusive due to high levels of insecurity, constraints and trade restrictions

PMS prices will never go down despite coming on board
Dangote
Modular refineries
Refurbished PH refineries and others in Qtr 3 2024)2025
We only have PMS availability and not at a reasonable price

We require the following concrete plan on the following
✓Revamp our economy – informal and formal sector
✓improve border management
✓improve agriculture productivity
✓ Create platform for Federal government to State government for effective collaboration

Power generation
PMB signed $2bn with Siemen, paid N100m for OEM,
What happened to this since PBAT promised to accept assets and liability of past administration
Current contract agreement with Siemens is this continuity or new contract there is certainty it will be the same of same

Conclusion
PBAT to influence minimal dollarisation, emphasis must be on improving local productivity for exports to reduce pressure on the dollar just like current local refining of petroleum
Closing inequality will remain elusive if we do not restructure, recalibrate, reposition, and measure output with World-class metric benchmarked

We now need community police to curd unabated terrorist action

Executive, judiciary now fully incentivised: Legislatures need to stop their financial wrecklessness

States to sign into law the deregulation of power act across the states

Ensure safety of life and property, provide credit facilities to small scale Nano-entrepreneurship to improve creation of jobs

SME’s must be fully incentivised to improve on our GDP on our journey to $1trn economy Fy2026

Fy 2024 remain a deceit as to why there is no concrete plan, it is only promissory
Secondly harmonizing cooperation and collaboration of States which shows high insolvency and lack of depth in internally generated revenue

There is no proof of efficiency or accountability around budget provision during implementation where we allocated
*39% for capital expenditure,
*N100bn for school feeling
We do not emphasize climate adaptation and mitigation
We do not have robust budget ecological fund to resolve erosion in sangbana in Venue

It is highly discerning that PBAT did not make mention of 195 killed in Plateau this is highly discouraging