Nigeria's Trending Economic Woes

Nigeria Trending Economic Woes by Dr. Kenny Odugbemi

Nigeria economic woe is now heavily frightening to the extent that, concerned patrotic financial expert, versatile economist without bias, prejudice to religious, political, ethnic sentiment but with clear understanding of the implementation of our domestic economic policies narratives ought to be having shaky confidence in the heads of Monetary and fiscal agencies, who are now so weakened rather struggling in thier effort to redirect Nigeria economy on the right path.

*MDA’s of finance and budget concerns include
Category -1-Monetary
✓Federal Ministry of Finance
✓Federal Ministry of Finance
✓Central bank
✓Federal inland Revenue service

Category 2-Fiscal

✓Federal Ministry of ✓Budget planning

✓Budget office of the Federation
✓Debt Management office

✓Trending alerts-signals

**Nigeria is bleeding profusely from all sides of it’s body politics

✓Trending alert signals includes but not limited to the following

*Poor management of complex linkages between Revenue expenditures and other economic variables such as fiscal deficit and finance mechanisms through Banking and non Banking system

*There is a residual and depreciating impact on the values, our local stocks

✓Structure and trend of public debt

*The basis behind securitization of our accumulated ways and means

✓Ways and means @N30.73trn
✓Total public debt @ N97.7trn

✓Exchange rate pegged at $:N800

✓Fy 2024 budget @N28.7trn

*Accumulated loans are being used to finance consumption

*Our Debt Management strategy incapacitating and exposing our inevitability of our repayment infidelity

*Deficit arising from Fy 2023&2024 supplementary budget with average increase of 70.68% being used to finance our borrowing

*There is deliberate attempt by this administration to increase our economic frontier through diverse diversification which give rise to other emerging MDA’s such as
*Marine and Blue Oceans
*Steel development
*Creative and arts
*Tourism
*Environments and ecology- climate change impact

These MDA’s were well anticipated to generate additional revenue streams, but we are yet to see in clear terms the proof of concept considering the following
✓Why- thiers emergence as a functional entity

✓What-are they precisely contributing in the short, medium and long term?

✓When-time bound of their Revenue contribution
✓ How -are going to contribute to their revenue quota

✓These are audacious intentions but remain repulsive and reactivated as of now, we have not been able to block financial leakages and wrecklessness in existing MDA’s inherited from clueless PMB administrations that plunge Nigeria into deep economic woes

✓Critical and cogent issues of prime importance

✓Looting are gradually becoming unguarded.”
✓Promissory of prosperity is a rhetorical without foundation
✓ Presently despite allocation of 12% of Fy budget for Security, changing of Security Service Chiefs and IGP,hundreds of people were freely massacred in Plateau, Taraba, Kaduna and our Military command are giving flimpsy excuses despite 37 escalation of not being able to access this dispersed villages through bad roads,but can innocently kill 87 people with hundre injured in Bini village in Kaduna with drone bombs,

✓How can we attract FDI’s from the globe,

*if we have this bad story of with following gaps
✓porous security management,
✓no guarantee social welfare structure,
✓watton looting across MDA’s,
✓strange bed fellow relationship between three tiers of government, Executives, Legistlatures and Judiciary
✓ increase numbers of multidimensionally poor people, whose intervention mechanisms has now being truncated
✓ low purchasing power of the people
✓ Multinationals divesting one after the other throwing many into job Market
✓ unstructured private led inniatives with minimal financial support, grant,

Over (70-80)% Small.scale enterprises are in moribund states, insolvent and performing below expectations,

Out of 48,000 the manufacturer’s government only pledged to support 75nos only with N1b which will be treated as monthly expense cost on diesel whose price galloping without control, how can they function well to create jobs for over 43% of unemployed youth in Nigeria another, Social investment infrastructure in futility

✓My critical reviews

*N97.7trn- Nigeria public debt has not created any meaningful economic opportunities

*The Welfare intervention has now been truncated denying substantial economic opportunities that can guarantee job creation

*There is no significant investment of the accumulated loans on Infrastructure and capital goods yet still waiting for fy2024 budget implementation as it relates to capital expenditures @35% of the entire budget

*The failed promised of PH refinery working after capital expenditure of $1.5bn on near end of life 60 years fully cannibalized, now at Mechanical testing, even at full production will be handed to private investor with premium expectation of recouping amount invested, how can PMS come down, even with Dangote and other Modular refineries, including Warri and Kaduna, oil will still be sold at international price,but availability will be guaranteed

*Securitization against the future earnings of crude oil, dividend of gas supply is still elusive for example Afriexim loan at $3b,now moved up to $3.3b because of imaginary new introduce broker UBA and other banks claiming 2% charge as additional charges

*Why can we now patronize IMF that is safe enough,but will only give conditionality

*We have upsurge in broad money supply due to a jump in public debt

*We have scandalous overdrafts which are unbudgeted across expense schedule of expenditure across local Banks

*Ways and means of over N30trn is not backed by assets, goods and services but mainly floating papers

*Why are we borrowing,inview of outstanding N33trn under investigation by Mr Obaze foreign investigator, who declared he had recovered N12trn,

*EFCC and Minister of Justice are all investigating present and past looting with impunity across all sectors, we should expidite action with transparency

Conclusion

*The head of Monetary and fiscal authorities are protege of political rewardees, where lies their loyalty as he who appointed and pays will continue to dictate to citizenship of Nigeria walloping in deep and abject poverty, there is need for more vigilance by patriotic citizens,Human right lawyers, and Civil Society in oversight function on our economy that can slip at any time into oblivion

*CBN must achieve their price stability target, eradicate multiple exchange rate schemes
CBN to ensure payment of trapped fund of foreigners for example 10% of loan owned by foreign airlines, have just been paid for and have threatened to shut down indefinitely

“The public at large will require more probity, accountability of Nation finance expenditures and recovery of looting

*Nigeria is bleeding profusely,this administration must block all loop holes and impose maximum sanction on looters without any bias,and discrimination,

*We presently are not stimulating any economic growth and rather productivity is gradually decreasing being too much import dependence, hence there need of imposing by government state of emergency on the aforementioned, as if today inflation is 28.92%,

*We are still experiencing Naira scarcity, where as still have N2.7trn in circulation calling for government to improve in financial inclusion from 64% to 95% and finally let us stop the deceit of public prosperity when it is obvious lines are not fallen in pleasant places