Nigeria’s Oil Output Set to Hit 1.8m Barrels Daily

Nigeria’s oil production is expected to climb steadily to 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) before the end of the year, according to the Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), Bayo Ojulari.

Ojulari made this known after briefing President Bola Tinubu in Lagos on the state of the oil and gas sector since his appointment on April 2. He explained that ongoing turnaround maintenance and recovery efforts across several fields were beginning to yield results, giving the national oil company confidence about meeting the production target.

According to Ojulari, maintenance works carried out in August and September were part of a broader strategy to restore efficiency and ramp up crude output. With operations now stabilising across major production hubs, he said the target of hitting 1.8 million bpd before December was both realistic and attainable.

Oil Sector Stability Amid Earlier Setbacks

Nigeria’s oil production has faced numerous disruptions in recent months, from pipeline vandalism to industrial actions that halted output across critical facilities. A major setback came when the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) clashed with the Dangote Refinery over the alleged dismissal of more than 800 Nigerian workers and their replacement with foreign staff.

The conflict escalated quickly, leading PENGASSAN to issue a nationwide strike directive on September 26. The strike, though short-lived, had widespread consequences for the oil and gas industry, including deferred production and reduced gas output.

Within the five days that the strike lasted, Nigeria reportedly lost an estimated 200,000 barrels of oil per day, alongside a drop in gas supply that also impacted power generation across several states. The shutdown of critical operations underscored the vulnerability of the sector to labour disputes and how quickly industrial actions can disrupt economic activity.

Power generation was particularly hit, with approximately 1.2 megawatts lost due to the disruption in gas supply. The production shortfall and reduced power generation during that period further strained the economy, which has been battling inflationary pressures and fluctuating energy costs.

Ojulari noted that although the disruptions caused temporary setbacks, efforts have been intensified to recover lost capacity. He added that the NNPCL’s production recovery plan is already restoring operations to near-normal levels, setting the stage for sustained growth in the final quarter of the year.

Federal Government’s Role in Restoring Calm

Following days of tension between Dangote Refinery and PENGASSAN, the Federal Government, through the Office of the National Security Adviser, stepped in on September 30 to mediate. The intervention was led by National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu in collaboration with the Minister of Labour, who convened a dialogue involving all stakeholders.

The meeting resulted in a peaceful resolution, with both parties agreeing to a set of terms aimed at restoring stability. The Dangote Group agreed to recall the dismissed workers, while the union suspended its strike action, bringing relief to the oil sector and preventing further production losses.

The Federal Government’s swift mediation was viewed as crucial to stabilising operations across the energy value chain. With the refinery and union now back on cooperative terms, industry experts say attention must turn to preventing similar disputes through better communication and compliance with labour standards.

Ojulari praised the government’s coordinated response, describing it as a decisive move that protected national economic interests. He said the intervention ensured that key production sites returned to optimal operation sooner than expected, enabling the NNPCL to continue its focus on scaling up output.

Although some facilities are still working to fully recover their lost output, the general production landscape is showing signs of rebound. Several upstream operators have resumed normal drilling and export activities, and crude lifting schedules have started to stabilise.

Renewed Optimism in Nigeria’s Energy Outlook

The projection of hitting 1.8 million barrels per day marks a significant milestone for Nigeria, especially after months of fluctuating performance. The optimism within the NNPCL aligns with broader government efforts to improve operational efficiency, reduce crude theft, and attract fresh investment into the energy sector.

Industry analysts believe that achieving the target will not only boost government revenue but also strengthen investor confidence. The oil and gas sector remains Nigeria’s largest foreign exchange earner, and sustained production growth could ease fiscal pressures amid the ongoing reforms in the downstream sector.

The federal government’s renewed partnership with private players such as Dangote Refinery is also expected to help stabilise domestic fuel supply and reduce reliance on imports. With the refinery gradually scaling its operations, Nigeria could move closer to achieving self-sufficiency in petroleum products, thereby conserving foreign reserves.

However, experts have warned that consistent progress depends on addressing structural challenges such as insecurity in the Niger Delta, funding gaps in joint ventures, and delayed project approvals. There are also calls for the government to prioritise local refining capacity and diversify energy exports to cushion against future price shocks.

As the year draws to a close, the NNPCL’s projection of 1.8 million barrels per day represents more than just a production milestone. It signals renewed optimism that Nigeria’s oil industry, despite its turbulence, is gradually regaining its footing.

With stability returning to production sites, cooperation restored between unions and operators, and the government demonstrating active engagement, the sector appears set for a more productive final quarter. For the first time in months, Nigeria’s oil outlook is defined by steady recovery rather than uncertainty.