Thinking Out of the Box by Dr Kenny Odugbemi
PBAT administration review, in the words of Dr Akinwunmi Present AFDB, Nigeria had total assets of $6trn being mismanaged by our past and present leader, and also maintained that any Nation using earning of her Natural resources to obtain loan is putting the Nation into jeopardy
This administration and their policies has not conform in any way to standard global practice, in the past we do crude swap, free exploitation of our minerals in North with deceit of Boko Haram and other cabal across region have successfully joined, farmer herder clash to forcefully acquire arable land, continuous oil theft in Niger Delta-, and powerful cabal exploiting mineral resources in Southwest all with impunity without any consequences action including impunity of resharing oil by successive Administration how can this Nation prosper surely we need restructuring and resource control
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PBAT Policy Review
PBAT introduced two audacious policies such as removal of fuel subsidies and unification of Forex and Executives order on Tax reforms, these are widely acclaimed as most deserving by global development institutions
Nigeria is a failing state as inherited liabilities outweigh assets from the last clueless Administration
PBAT reform on cushioning effect has thinking but no deep thought process as it remains repulsive and reactive
Secondly, unification of forex has not had any meaningful impact as demand outweighs supply
Presently CBN is liquidating backlogs, though try to ensure price stability through Incentivising OMO operation, but speculators had frustrated his effort, as they are heavy hoarding of dollar, with 41% devaluation and debt service using 98% of our revenue and securitizing N30trn ways and means, with total debt standing at N97.7trn, inflation will soar till middle of this year 2024 imposing heavy hardship of hunger and anger with extremely poor purchasing power Nigeria is in comatose and quagmire
This is now fast becoming dreaded Dragon, we have spent for over 8years N12TRN to sustain our security architecture, in the last Administration
PBAT administration appropriated 12% of our budget to security and humongous amount received in supplementary budget if Fy2023,changed NSA and all service Chiefs, provided substantive Minister and Ministers of State, with Director general of State Security services with new Inspector general of police, yet planned killings with advance information goes on unabated across NE,NW and NC , the recent killing of 195 people in Plateau on eve of Christmas,8 people in Taraba,5people in Boko village in Plateau not forget killing of 87people in Birini village spuriously using drone bombs all shows that our intelligence network us poor, lack of chain of command ,and poor handling of security interface is imminent despite budget of Army and also reveal lack of synergy with Air force command that control air space integrity whilst Military control external land integrity, this inaction are becoming prevalent, funny scenario we are quick to donate huge money but failed woefully to avert crisis who is fooling who
We are engaged in combat of asymmetric war fare leveraging culture and religion all to deplete land assets through grabbing and continuous mineral exploitation
Unification of forex
We have not been able to achieve price stability due to shortage in supply of forex and battle with multiple exchange rate
Removal of fuel subsidy
The administration of palliative and other interventions has not yielded any meaningful result despite N180bn there is still severe hunger and anger, farmers can not farm because of insecurity with terrible roads and high fuel costs.
We have in excess of liquidity of N3tn that CBN has mopped up to N2,7trn through Incentivising OMO yet there is not enough money in the bank, you can only get N5000 at once ,who is hoarding Naira, yet at parties you can get a new note to spray, Piss is in brisk business now 30% charge in new note,10% on old note
Where is EFCC, to monitor Naira distribution flow, suffice to say most bankers own POS, even petrol starts deposit with POS for interest not Banks again
Who is fooling who?
Attraction of FDI’s
NBS confirmed till date we have attracted 11% capital formation and 26 states attracted none
Yet we have spent billion of dollars to travel to beg and sign contracts, PMB, and GEJ solicited likewise, what are we doing differently since we do not have fundamentals in place, a highly toxic environment, financial wrecklessness and system looters of Treasury, with constant advertised killing which investor will come, when local investor are in moribund, multinational leaving enmasse-we have loss$4.5b investment
The desire to have food security is a dead in arrival
Agriculture budget N362bn
Capital expenditure N252bn
Recurrent expenditure N110bn
Net balance is what will be selected injected to boost Agric production
Acquisition of 500,000 hectares is an illusion, such land is mainly in North Niger, Nasarawa, Gombe etc
The supply of fertilizer is selective to a few, many peasant farmers in the South don’t have the same access as North
The supply of 2million metric tones of maize, rice favour and subsequent cultivation favour the Northern part more, but terrorists will not allow farming just like Anchor borrowers gulping N4trn without any results, we are toeing the same channel
How can we have food security?
Transmission grid has collapsed 12times, despite injection of N1.36trn by last clueless administration
Discos remain epileptics , without no substantial investment to revamp legacy equipment, promote at will estimated billing by frustrating Digital meter distribution, many are under bankruptcy taken over by their financier, suffice to say with generation capacity of 12,000MGW only 4000MGW is available for distribution, and only Southerners pay for electricity consumption, MDA’s and other parastatals are owing N400m
PMB signed $2b contract with Siemens, and paid $100m to OEM
All to be concluded Fy2025, upgrade and automation of three tiers Generation
It is noteworthy to say that generation and distribution have been privatized, with irrevocable contracts with sanctity but renewable
Why are we signing a new contract again
We have spent $1,5bn dollar to reactivate 60year old moribund Port Harcourt refinery now on Mechanical test, i am worried about reliability to generate output soon of 60,000ltrpd,with second part of PH 30,000ltrspd capacity, Kaduna, and Warri coming up, all things being equal
We are anticipating a combined supply of 450,000ltrspd on date yet to be announced
It is noteworthy to say that with Dangote 650,00/ltrpd and other Modular refineries all producing back to back, PMS will still be sold at international price,
World bank suggested a minimum of N750/ltr but i am projecting over N1000/trs due to current 41% devaluation and lack of forex needed to support their operation.
PBAT as a democratic, entrepreneurs, financial expert had high commitments and hope of turning things around, fundamentally the supporting team are rather not in tune with realities, no practical approach they are all speculators, most of their policies are not backed by deep thought, the bloated structure is majorly cost centre, 50% of political protegee being reward rather have no competence, capacity and character to add any meaningful value
PBAT, as a matter of urgency, must create a platform for
Recalibration of his cabinets
Restructuring is now imminent
Repositioning is sacrosanct
Results must be transparent with open accountability
PBAT did not promise an Eldorado performance
Nigerians need a complete paradigm mind culture shift toward governance and the need to show an understanding of the complexities of myriads of the problems and challenges confront us, due to heavily burden cabal who are bent on destabilizing this administration.
PBAT administration need to recalibrate his recurrent expenditure frame work to reflect current realities as Executives, Legislatures and Judiciary are living in opulence living on our common patrimony while 133m Nigerian dwell in monumental poverty of no good health, no good road, no sufficient food, epileptics power supply, no job for 43% of youths, Elders are dying easily on minor disease and delay in their pension
Final conclusion in words of Dr Akinwunmi our resources are not to be cornered as of today by a few bigot but to be managed by three tiers of government with equity, fairness and justice.
Nigeria belongs to all
Happy New Year