Road Path To Economic Recovery By Dr Kenny Odugbemi
Nigeria is currently using debt to weather the financial crisis, but there exists rising global interest and the absence of a well structured and functional framework for comprehensive debt reduction and relief, this is threatening access to international financial markets and deglobalization is now limiting the use of international trade to drive local economic growth – Road Path To Economic Recovery.
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Nigeria’s internal environment and litany of insanity across all sector more precarious and will remain the same over a long time giving the following:
Inconsistent domestic policies
These two immutable Factors are making most of the policy makers across all sectors very helpless, ineffective and inefficient
Nigeria is going through economic doldrums, in quagmire tending to a state of comatose where no policy or executive orders can work thus defiling all odds signalling the time of change to regain lost ground and move toward economic prosperity, resilience and inclusive societies.
The Nigerian economy has remained precarious, unstable, unproductive, and inefficient for more than ten years and probably going worse now due to the following:
*Preference for self interest over National interest
*Political expediency overriding sound economic judgement
In over 32 states in Nigeria, state capacity is low with the following traits
- constrained service delivery,
*Violence widespread with antecedent of terrorism, killings and kidnapping for ransom.
*Lack of access to electricity of over 90million people hindering domestic economic integration that ought to allow Nigeria to leverage on its large market size
*Government wreckless recurring expenditure
*Political and economic instability
*Inconsistent economic policies on public and private inniatives
*Lack of genuine focus on vulnerables- indigents and people with disabilities
*State society gap
*Poor human capital development
Ripple effects of the past
Fy(2015-2021)- GDP growth rate is 1.1%
Nigeria experienced two forms of devastating recession: underemployment and unemployment at the rate of high time of 56.1% stemming from Fy2020
Nigeria is not producing enough for local Consumption and export
We have a very weak manufacturing base due to high import duties, scarcity of forex, high cost of generating energy, lack of other infrastructure and enabling environment limiting numbers to accommodate workforce entrant 80% of workers are employed in sectors with low level of productivity majorly agriculture and other non-tradable services
There is a need for a practical strategy on how to structurally reform the economy moving labour, economic resources from low productivity to high productivity sectors
We need to restructure, recalibrate, reposition entire manufacturing sectors sitting at the middle ladder of our productivity enhancement with high potential
Fy 2050- Nigeria will have a population of 428million people necessitating the need to diversify to other high yielding productive sectors of Mineral resources and create fraternity with single market in Africa AFFTA- African continental trade
We need to address burgeoning infrastructure deficit, inadequate power limiting competitiveness of our major industries.
We need to develop industrial policies and seek support to scale up, increase efficiency and competitiveness of local firms
We are repulsive and reactive to major social welfare issues of all
forms of vulnerability, giving of food items, money can not solve the problem and they are temporary and unsustainable
Nigeria needs to raise domestic revenue and spend more efficiently
Strengthen and empower pragmatic tax administrations to eliminate unnecessary inefficiency in recurring and capital expenditures
Nigeria must move away from expensive ostentatious goods, which are regressive large scale generalized subsidy toward selective well targeted approaches using technology, enabling social protection programs and high investment in research, development and infrastructure upgrades.
Nigeria must adopt targeted approach to support the vulnerable, thereby eliminating current wasteful expenditures by improving on our public investments, which are often poorly conceived with limited resources that cannot support long-term growth
Nigeria’s government as a matter urgency enable Indigineous enterpreneurship to flourish and compete with others in developed economies whilst tapping into our demographic bulge of 65% of population below 25years
Nigeria must invest in looking forward Minerals repositories such as
All these mineral resources are essential key to green transition
Nigeria’s government must adopt clear, credible, pragmatic strategies to develop these resources to springboard highly efficient economic transformation plan for local additional values.
Quick win approach
Nigeria had over 60% uncultivated arable land,even the remaining 40% cultivated land are under sanction for terrorist killing the farmers at will without any meaningful consequence action
If we fail to feed our 65% young Fast population they will turn our expected demographics dividend to demographics time bomb,
Nigeria’s government must put in place fiscal space and macroeconomic conditions that can respond to various shocks, faxing our economies,improve our efficiency in public spending, mobilize more domestic tax to contribute to structural and stable fiscal space with sound microeconomic policy framework which is fundamental to our quick recovery.
Nigeria’s economy is witnessing massive distortion with ugly trends making our policymakers very helpless as a result of these economic indicators which are now becoming very disturbing
We currently have poor handling of our bad economy thus leading to unending current economic woes
Youth unemployment- 43%
Youth underemployment 21%
Our current bad economy, insecurity,systemic corruption is scaring foreign capital away,
We only depend on borrowed funds to pay salaries,high cost of governance, social menace
It is apparent that we will continue to face an insecurity threat because most security officers are bought over with the highest bidding by political pockets now using numerous thugs stealing our crude oil and exploiting our mineral resources in favour of cabals.
Our legal system is in quagmire with antecedent of inconsistent judge at appeal court level giving more stress to supreme court
Nigeria government need to first fix all structural issues affecting our macro/micro economic policy with string focus on strengthening public institution with quick recovery of public trust in government.
The federal government must take advantage of these measures to avoid setbacks in our democratic progress, with a strong need to support inclusive recovery, reduce people vulnerability and develop a social safety net. Our recovery must be inclusive and equitable