The underlying fundamentals guiding the revenue stream to fund the Fy 2024 budget includes but not limited to the following economic vitals:
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✓Crude oil sale at $77.96
✓Exhange rate N750
✓Crude oil output 1.78mpd
✓Crude oil Brent $78
✓Opec allocation 1.5mbpd
Brent crude oil price flaunctuates function of many factors and force majeure, and we can observe a very slim margin: what if it falls below our estimate?
Reduction in our projected oil revenue implies that we will continue to borrow to finance capital and recurrent expenditure.
Our oil production output is far above Opec quota. We are in deficit since Opec can still lower the production target for oil producing Nation.
Russia- Ukraine War, Israel-Hamas war. These two events are a major set back for the world economy. We are still at risk of not meeting our projection of N18.05trn
The assumption of N750 to $1 is still unrealistic as speculators continue to work against decrease from current official window parallel market. We do not have sufficient forex injection to keep the exchange rate at N750 despite CBN topping $1.5bn monthly. Even the current inflation at 27.33% still increase marginally monthly. We hope for gradual decrease but more is needed to moderate it to projection of 21.4%. This implies all assumption in the budget need to be renewed to reflect current realities.
There was remarkable affirmation by PBAT on improving and reinvigorating security architecture to secure life and properties, but till date, we are seeing a down turn in intelligence gathering.
Recent occurence where 120 people were killed and many wounded just like in other five States is a clear testament of *gross incompetence, poor intelligence gathering, Poor chain command and Weak hierarchical control all in Army gulping highest Security budget.
Drones were continously detonate bomb based on spurious views on security dashboards. The real issue is, what are the roles of the following key officers in Armforces?
Chief of defense,
Chief of Army Staff, and
Who gave the order to detonate?
High powered investigation
It is also imperative that the Army must not be allowed to conduct an investigation of this massacre, as they will be compromised. Rather, an independent high power committee comprising of the following:
Retire Chief Justice and Retire Chief if defence, army, Emirs, and Community leaders should be engaged for this purpose.
All stakeholders to review circumstances, apportion slacks, recommend disciplinary actions and pay compensation
The international Communities are watching us live detonating sporadic bombs through drone whilst terrorist mix up with civilians just like Isreal genocide against Hamas whilst destroying Gaza. Will they still honour their investment promise? It is now probability as Nigeria remains unsafe.
UAE pledge $30bn
UK pledge €100m
We are leading Africa, against any contribution because of our low productivity. We need to have right document to be qualified for good credit rating, not just by a population of 220million people that are 65% multidimensionally very poor.
In conclusion, the Federal government still needs to review all aforementioned risk, they are to hit the ground running to generate revenue otherwise we will continue to borrow and mortgage our future. However, ensuring robust capital infrastructure across all sectors will be our only saviour.
God bless Nigeria!