Nigeria Moves From Failed To Failing State – Fr. Kenny Odugbemi

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Background

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The debacle of Nigeria being a failed or failing state can be compared with the following case study

Case I
Cup that is half filled

Case 2

Cup is half empty

Common appeal from three tiers of government to allow Nigerians to breathe

Nigeria is a failed state under the last clueless and incompetence of the last administration where there Watton looting with impunity our common treasury through quasi fiscal intervention of the last CBN governor standing trial of monumental corruption

We are a failing state under the present administration, a characteristic squadamania approach bloated structure with fragmented MDA’s of 48 members and over 20 special assistance, more over over 50% are mere political settlements, with no competence, capacity, and deficient character

Hence will not make any significant impact on GDP, hence they will be cost centre with attendant financial recklessness under inherited distressed economy on very of comatose and quagmire

We are at the mercy of other 50% who are technocratic and subject matter experts in their chosen careers.

Referral

In the words of Prof Attahiru Jega, the former INEC Chairman, noted to be global political scientist with political sagacity maintained that despite all the social intervention of this administration ,Nigeria is gradually tending to failed state

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Nigeria must as necessity be restructure before 2027 ,this require formulation of a bill by hallow chambers Senate Council and House of Representatives with initial preparation at the State House of assembly to be deliberated as law for President accent

Pathway
✓Executives- implement
✓Legistlatures- formulate law
✓Judiciary interpret law
Now these three tiers are strange bed fellows, where Legislatures round rob with meaningful contributions to reshape submissions by the executive, whilst Judiciary are fully compromised inconsistent and incongruous, where you can purchase justice despite being a criminal at a high level across our ‘MDA’s, political leaders and cabals not living behind religious leaders.

It is on record that all social menaces of terrorism, kidnapping, arson is still very must prevalent
Army forces have killed over 400 through drone bombing, financial recklessness is a true example of a failing state.

Economic vitals

November 2023 inflation jumped to 28.2%

World Bank Interface

World bank declared that we have 104m multidimensionally poor people in Nigeria, pegging the pump price of N750per litre in addition to other audacious orders of subsidy removal, unification of foreign exchange and deregulation of power sectors, condition cash transfer and supply of CNG buses.

All this does not consider low public purchase, 41% of Naira, excess liquidity of N3trn yet there is cash trapped

We have an increase added to the property aggregate by 11million

State of the Nation

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Local government is still under the whimps and caprices of most governors, jettison proposed autonomy

The current presidential system is too expensive hence there is need to devolve power regionally as stated in the 1963 constitution

Proposing pragmatic social intervention to address perennial poverty and penury is now a necessity to reduce hunger and anger for the most vulnerable in excess of 100m of our total population..

Current vital
Headline inflation 28.2%
Food security 32.84%
Core inflation 27 .38%
Urban 30.21%
Rural 26.49%

My Suggestions

We need to urgently devolve power to deflate the concentration of power at the center, this will necessitate emergency of Community policing to stem the tide of vociferous security inferno

World bank Contribution

The current manager of the World Bank appreciates our tough economic reform, progressive contribution of CBN to pay backlog, and stabilized price, not engaging in any quasi fiscal intervention is highly commendable.

Find below further World bank contributions
✓Review of fiscal space of increase of oil revenue from. fuel subsidy

✓Float Naira under multi-tiered exchange and attendant currency restrictions, strengthened enough but not forgotten our debt service

✓May 2023 ,Nigeria Naira value loss of 41% against dollar
High import duty
Non repatriation of FDI fund

✓Poverty vital

2018 -40%
2022-46%
2023-104m poorest of poor

Economic growth proposed
Fy 2023-2024 is 3.5%

Real issues now is that the new administration is heavily constrained by structural issues such
Infrastructure decadence
Tariffs and not tariff structure barriers to trade

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All of these are
Strong obstacle of FDI both local and foreign

Epileptic domestic economic integration

Our Critical problems

✓Population growth projection FY 2050-440 million
✓Galloping inflation 28.2% moving toward 3O% as projected
✓Current bank rate>30%annually
✓Intervention fund by FG 9% annually
✓Export very insignificant in ratio of 1:10 to import

✓Low confidence and trust apathy locally and internationally of the present administration to attract implementable investment with good timeline
✓Supply chock- who h reduce ability for our economy to produce output
✓Demand shock- unpatriotic speculators hoarding both Naira and Dollar
✓Keep constant variance of N300 despite CBN not intervening with $1.5b monthly

Conclusion

✓Restore macroeconomics stability (price stability)
✓Reduce inflation through sequences and mixed traces
✓Complete FX and Tax reform
✓Expand social intervention and protection of the vulnerable on a long term basis
✓Implement tax Break,
tax rebate
✓Deregulation And di-investment across boards of Government Revenue

✓Government at all levels to reduce recurrent expenditure, and improve on capital expenditure with strong emphasis on local content, labour and materials following 20:80% in favour of local population

✓Reinforce attention to develop rural infrastructures

✓Promote digital innovation across government at the three tier level AI, Robotic, sequencing and convergence to reduce final leakages, improve effectiveness and effectiveness with good profit margins

rainsmediaradio https://rainsmediaradio.com

Media enthusiast and music lover on a journey to becoming a global media mogul. I am taking it a step at a time.

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