Nigeria Economic Growth (Turbulent Times & Warning Lights) by Dr Kenny Odugbemiu
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According to some global forecasters, there is a 98.1% chance of another global recession, Nigeria as a subregion in the African Continent inclusive as economists dialed back their forecasts for growth and expect inflation-adjusted wages to keep falling the rest of this year and next.
All these drastic economic conditions have certainly presented leaders with plenty of challenges.
Despite these economic troubles mounting, experts say that executives should see this time as a great moment of opportunity for companies to differentiate themselves.
Current economic conditions pose huge challenges for company executives as they face an uncertain environmental change projected to disrupt companies’ anticipated growth, including earnings.
This situation has not only created real turbulence for the business community, but has also solidified the decision making process of business or companies.
With economic troubles mounting, it’s time to tighten belts and put on hard hats.
Many business leaders are taking to shore up defenses and gains different from the purely defensive agenda that many companies
Nigeria economy -perspectives
IMF revises Nigeria 2024 economy growth projection marginally to 3%,whilst maintaining FY2025 at 3.1% contrary to Nigeria’s projection of 3.76%, despite tightening our monetary policy the inflation remains at 28.9% with galloping potency
We experience unsual occurrence 30th of Jan 2024
Our already 50% devalued Naira currency experienced a loss of N133.95 with 9.94% decline closing at N1482/$1 on investor-exporter window closing higher than the parallel market which anchored at N1460)$1
Africa economy perspective
SubSaharan Africa Fy2024- economic perspective growth will move from 3.3% -3.8%
US economy perspective
The US economy grew by 3.1% last
China economy perspective
China’s economy grew by 4.6% likewise
The global headline fall in inflation
Fy 2023 -6.8%
According to McKinsey, the top priorities for a company’s top executive in today’s environment would be the following:
1, Resilience: Resilience is emerging as a vital “muscle” for companies operating in a world of endless volatility and disruption, it is the priority par excellence in its different aspects: financial, operational, technological, organizational, business model and reputational resilience.
2, Courage: This a priority center, courageous business leaders tend to pull back a bit and postpone some initial actions
The best leaders and companies are ambidextrous: prudent about managing the downside while courageously pursuing the upside.
However, the best leaders not only focus on prudent management of the difficulties of the current cycle but are also attentive to seek opportunities that may arise and bet on long-term strategies and projects outside the manual.
3, Building New Businesses Seeking Growth:
Executives must prioritize creating companies in high-growth sectors. Consolidated companies have something that start-ups may miss such as resources, capital, assets. with profitable sectors leveraging green technologies.to accelerate fast growth
4, Improving Technology and Digitization:
To build new businesses and to strengthen resilience, it is essential to have the right technology and continue advancing in the digital transformation of companies. especially for new green business opportunities
Technology is always evolving, offering new opportunities to CEOs looking to transform their business.
5, Going Forward with Net Zero Emissions Commitments:
According to McKinsey, the goals of sustainability, economic competitiveness, affordability, and national security dovetail as never before.leaving CEOs to adapt, mitigate, and knit these concepts into a vehicle that goes from zero to net zero.
6, Strengthen or Rebuild Employee Experience:
Improving employee satisfaction, improving employee satisfaction and a sense of pride in being part of the company is the key to solving talent retention and attraction
Nigeria must fight fiercely for our galloping inflation through pragmatic tightening of monetary policy and restructuring, recalibrating our fiscal policy, and most of the stringent policies across monetary and fiscal are audacious, repulsive and reactive.
*We have net deficit of over nearly $10bn as of today despite pledging crude oil sales with quantity yet to be determined and dividend of gas to acquire over $3b , and have injected close to over $2.5b the market remain unresponsive,with voracious price instability, with financial wrecklessness and many loop hole, even with CBN receiving direct payment of almost liquidated and non performing NNPC with disaster 16months audited account declaring spurious total subsidiaries profit of N4trn what a Shame when compared with like of ARAMCO
Where is our share of Dangote refineries, which SPV was used for this purchase
*Solid mineral exploitation still continues despite spontaneous corcormitant report of monitoring licences and managing unsolicited exploitation, what is the outcome
Where are we on Steel development – dilapidated Ajaokuta rolling mill
*Where are we on wide publicity of Blue ocean, Creative and art, Tourism all these Ministries as of today are cost entre
*We can not even resolve insecurity, price hikes on commodity, with no hope of PMS price reduction despite emergence of Dangote who is now purchasing crude oil from USA another depletion of forex, even with consolidated production by other Modular refineries,the PMS will still maintain international price status which might still be higher than price
*All things being equal which is uncertain
Nigeria should prepare for recession in the immediate future as aforementioned
Who is creating jobs for the youths
50% of our road are motorable
*Waterway is never safe, with wild fire across Jetty with pollution of water killing acquaculture in South south
*North central under strong hold of militia
Northwest and Northeast under daily decimation by terrorists
*Southwest now experiencing kidnapping and killing of Monarchs coming from Security in Ekiti
*Where can we have safehaven in Nigeria?
*We need a change of strategies across boards,
We are loosing ground in daily basis and recession is imminent as aforementioned
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