Dangote Refinery Approaching Full Capacity Amid Uncertainty Over Crude Supply

 The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has significantly ramped up its production, currently operating at 85% of its 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) capacity. This marks a major milestone in Nigeria’s quest to reduce dependence on imported refined petroleum products. According to Vice President of Dangote Industries, Devakumar Edwin, the refinery is on track to reach full production within the next 30 days.

With this increase, the refinery is now processing approximately 552,500 bpd, contributing to a broader goal of ensuring energy security for Nigeria and reducing fuel importation costs. However, despite this progress, refinery officials have remained silent on the crucial issue of crude oil supply, a key factor in achieving sustainable full-capacity operations.

In recent months, the refinery has faced challenges in securing sufficient crude supply from domestic producers. Although an agreement with the Nigerian government was put in place to purchase crude in naira, difficulties persisted, leading the refinery to resort to international crude imports. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) previously stated that local oil producers must supply up to 550,000 bpd to the refinery from January to June 2025. The commission has also warned that it would block export permits for companies failing to meet their domestic crude supply obligations.

Meanwhile, the Dangote Refinery has begun expanding its market outreach. Chairman Aliko Dangote recently disclosed that the refinery had exported two cargoes of jet fuel to Saudi Aramco, signaling the company’s ambition to establish itself as a major player in the global energy market. Despite these developments, uncertainties remain about whether the increased production will translate into lower fuel prices in Nigeria.

A senior refinery official, who spoke anonymously, compared the production scale-up to “cooking a full pot of rice instead of half,” meaning more refined products will be available. However, industry experts caution that unless the crude supply issue is resolved, the refinery’s long-term efficiency could be hampered. The coming months will determine whether Dangote Refinery can sustain its production momentum and fulfill its promise of making Nigeria a refined petroleum hub.