Assessment of Nigeria's Financial Strength Under PBAT – Dr kenny Odugbemi

Nigeria still grappled with galloping inflation rates for over two decades, now standing at 27.5%, and overhead food inflation of 31.5%, this has activated increasing spending pressure on the government and raised social risk.

We can not ascertain the extent of fiscal relief from oil subsidy

Nigeria is spending 6-times to service debt

Based on research, most of the fundamentals stated to drive revenues in FY 2024 budget appropriation are rather very uncertain as they are at variance with the current reality. For instance, the outlook of the following:
✓oil production and external funding inflow
✓ oil production target by Opec
✓ambitious growth of 3.76%
✓ exchange range pegged at N750

All these still remain uncertain and unattainable

Review of Fiscal Measures

Nigeria today has weak fiscal and external positions, and most of our reform efforts are very weak in improving our credit rating

PBAT audacious move on subsidy removal, current devaluation are supposed to be key indicators to upgrade our credit rating to reverse the deterioration of our fiscal position

CBN is still paying backlog that account for why Naira continue downward trend against dollar

My view

Based on intelligence, it is uncertain if we will meet FY 2024, revenue projection of N18.5% which implies that we might need to borrow more

FDI Drive

Whilst it is highly appreciated to solicit foreign direct investment, the millions of dollars spent tend to be more squandamania

It is advisable to reduce this heavy spending in a depressed economy and latch on to technology

The latest spending on UAE- 422 delegations at the cost of estimate of $800m bin addition to several million spent for Germany & India is worrisome.
Although we sign billion dollar investment opportunities, our pursuit of credit carbon rating financial support is highly rewarding, but it cannot be in the short term

There is a need to review and recalibrate capital expenditure to executive and legislatures- to reflect current reality

The donation of N109m as basic salary of Senators to Kaduna bombs to alleviate suffering, to provide succor as compensation is reactive and repulsive

We need a review of their allowances, largesse to reflect current realties

It is now a thing of interest that Presidency have not come out to review their spending as sacrifice as a result of our depressed economy.

Conclusion
It is advisable for the Executive team with bloated structure to lead in ensuring noticeable sacrifice as they are our major cost Centre as charity must start with them

Federal government to facilitating submission report of current probe of CBN where we have recovered N12trn out of N33trn

We need review, recalibration, repositioning of our expenditure which grows with recourse to our distressed economy and deep suffering of our people who are hungry and angry